Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112023 230308 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.30     41.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  31.0  28.6  30.8  28.4  18.3  21.5  17.4  U  U  N  U  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  15.0  12.0  12.0  22.0  22.0  13.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         55.1  50.7  48.6  46.5  46.5  48.6  48.6  59.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   9.0 -18.0 -37.0  18.0  22.0  43.0  31.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  55.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%        2.4%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        2.9%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        1.5%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        1.5%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        1.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 SH112023 230308 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.30     41.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  31.0  28.6  30.8  28.4  18.3  21.5  17.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  55.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.1%        3.0%