Rapid Intensification Guidance SH162023 230304 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 171.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 40.9 52.8 54.4 59.0 72.8 89.1 97.4 N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 14.4 3.0 -4.0 -7.3 -19.2 -38.3 -49.2 -61.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 128.0 112.0 98.0 102.0 51.0 54.0 61.0 92.0 F F F F N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 69.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 66.0 62.0 51.0 F N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -11.0 5.0 -11.0 6.0 36.0 14.0 -26.0 F F N F N VU U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 SH162023 230304 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 171.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130.