Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162023 230302 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    162.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.1  20.4  13.5  13.0  19.4  41.4  53.4  N  N  N  F  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  69.0  64.0  59.0  38.0  19.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3  86.6  72.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0 106.0  77.0 120.0  57.0  35.0  71.0  78.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  58.0  64.0  72.0  68.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0 -10.0  -8.0  15.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.8%       30.5%       37.2%
 25kt / 24h       75.4%       81.9%       78.6%
 30kt / 24h       60.0%       75.5%       67.8%
 35kt / 24h       52.7%       75.5%       64.1%
 40kt / 24h       36.5%       73.9%       55.2%
 45kt / 36h       62.5%       83.9%       73.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       73.3%       36.6%
 55kt / 48h       50.7%       65.2%       58.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       58.3%       41.6%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%       22.1%       17.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 SH162023 230302 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    162.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.1  20.4  13.5  13.0  19.4  41.4  53.4  N  N  N  U  U  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  58.0  64.0  72.0  68.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0 -10.0  -8.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%