Rapid Intensification Guidance SH152023 230228 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 168.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 27.2 31.4 29.2 40.9 50.5 63.9 64.8 N N U N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 32.0 20.0 15.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 79.3 70.1 51.6 20.4 15.5 8.8 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 155.0 133.0 127.0 142.0 116.0 153.0 137.0 114.0 VF VF F VF F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 64.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 F F F N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -25.0 -29.0 -35.0 -27.0 -60.0 -52.0 -51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.8% 28.7% 47.2% 25kt / 24h 65.8% 55.8% 60.8% 30kt / 24h 47.4% 50.4% 48.9% 35kt / 24h 46.0% 50.4% 48.2% 40kt / 24h 41.7% 47.7% 44.7% 45kt / 36h 38.4% 17.7% 28.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.6% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 SH152023 230228 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 168.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 27.2 31.4 29.2 40.9 50.5 63.9 64.8 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 64.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 U U U N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -25.0 -29.0 -35.0 -27.0 -60.0 -52.0 -51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.7% 0.2% 0.4%