Southern Hemisphere: 15P(UESI), 13S(FRANCISCO) and 94S updates at 13/12UTC



TC 13S: ANIMATION. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING CLOSE TO TOAMASINA/MADAGASCAR.

CIMSS/US
CIMSS/US
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 15P(UESI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 13, 2020:

Location: 30.3°S 160.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 131200
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) IS LOCATED NEAR
28.8S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BRISBANE,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, HOWEVER, A 130652Z
91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 130950Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 50 TO 55 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW VISIBLE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. SSTS ARE
CURRENTLY AT 24-25C. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 55 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 979 MB. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POOR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
     (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.


TC 13S( FRANCISCO) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 13, 2020:
Location: 18.0°S 50.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 131230
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 13S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 18.0S 50.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. METOP-A ASCAT IMAGERY FROM 130549Z INDICATES 25-30 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH A CONFINED AREA OF 35
TO 40 KNOT WINDS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF GRADIENT-INDUCED, CONVERGENT
FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C), STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-
30 KNOTS) AND ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER LAND MAKES ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AND EVENTUALLY
INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

INVEST 94S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 13, 2020:
Location: 14.8°S 75.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 131230
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 75.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 130814Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WITH SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
 

15P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


13S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


94S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 13 Février 2020 à 20:38

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